SecDefaultAction “log,deny,status:403,phase:2,t:lowercase,t:escapeSeqDecode”
SecRule REQUEST_FILENAME “/wp-login.php$” “chain,msg:’WORDPRESS wp-login.php redirect_to credentials stealing attempt’,severity:2,t:normalisePath”
SecRule ARGS_NAMES “^redirect_to$” “chain”
SecRule ARGS:redirect_to “(ht|f)tps?\://”

I can still login to my WordPress install, so it seems that the rule does no harm. Use at your own risk!

Update: I’ve created a Snort rule as well:

alert tcp $EXTERNAL_NET any -> $HTTP_SERVERS $HTTP_PORTS (msg:”WORDPRESS wp-login.php redirect_to credentials stealing attempt”; flow:to_server,established; uricontent:”/wp-login.php”; nocase; uricontent:”redirect_to”; pcre:”/redirect_to=(ht|f)tps?\:\//iU”; classtype:web-application-attack; sid:4000003; rev:1;)

Update 2: fixed the Snort rule, thanks to Shirkdog for pointing out that it had some broken pcre in it. The rule is now included in the BleedingThreats ruleset (check here), however that (slightly modified) rule doesn’t detect the attack for me.

Update 3: the Bleeding rule is now fixed. I’ve updated the above rule as well.

Update 4: updated the ModSecurity rule to prevent a possible evasion by prepending tab chars to the redirect url. Thanks to Ryan Barnett for pointing this out.